Solely 16% of college candidates obtain the grades their lecturers predict, analysis suggests.
Evaluation of the outcomes of 1.three million younger folks over a three-year interval discovered 75% had been given overly optimistic predictions by faculties.
However practically one in 10 (9%) did higher than predicted, the research, printed by the College and Faculty Union, says.
College admissions service Ucas mentioned the 16% associated to these with no internet deviation from all their predictions.
The UCU is looking for an overhaul of the college admissions system, which at the moment sees college students apply on the energy of their predicted grades.
It mentioned it was time the UK allowed college students to use with agency outcomes not predictions which can be “poor guestimates”.
It mentioned a post-qualifications admission (PQA) system would additionally abolish the necessity for unconditional provides for college locations.
Researchers at UCL’s Institute of Schooling analysed the highest three A-level outcomes from 1.three million candidates who sat A-levels in 2013, 2014 and 2015 went on to greater training via the Ucas service.
The report additionally discovered the grades of in a position college students from deprived backgrounds have been more than likely to be under-predicted.
Virtually one in 4 (24%) candidates from lower-income households was under-predicted of their outcomes, the UCU mentioned, in contrast with a fifth (20%) of these from wealthier properties.
Report creator, Dr Gill Wyness, from UCL’s Institute of Schooling, mentioned college students having their future grades under-rated by lecturers ought to be of explicit concern.
She mentioned: “I discover worrying proof that, amongst high-achieving (ie AAB or greater) candidates, deprived college students usually tend to be under-predicted than their extra advantaged counterparts.
“Certainly nearly three,000 deprived, high-achieving college students (or 1,000 per 12 months) have their grades under-predicted.”
Dr Wyness mentioned candidates who have been under-predicted have been extra more likely to apply to, and attend, a college for which they have been over-qualified, which might, in flip, have an effect on their future careers.
UCU basic secretary Sally Hunt mentioned: “This report exposes the overwhelming majority of predicted grades as guestimates, which aren’t match to be the premise on which younger folks and universities take key selections about their futures.
“This report is a damning indictment on a damaged system, not the hard-working lecturers tasked with the not possible job of attempting to make predictions.
“The outcomes strongly help our name for a whole overhaul of the system, the place college students apply after they obtain their outcomes.
“It’s fairly absurd that the UK is the one nation that persists with utilizing such a damaged system.”
However UCAS chief Mary Curnock Cook dinner rejected the UCU’s calls.
“While a post-results utility system is logical, it will work towards these from much less advantaged backgrounds,” she mentioned.
“It would not depart sufficient time for universities to correctly assess and meet the wants of the total vary of scholars, nor for college kids (notably from deprived backgrounds) to conduct all their analysis into lodging and finance earlier than making knowledgeable selections.
“Lastly, it isn’t the case that solely 16% of predicted grades are proper – the right interpretation is that solely about 16% of scholars haven’t any internet deviation in any respect from their predicted grades throughout three A-level outcomes.”